Guadalupe County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Guadalupe County has experienced 23 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Guadalupe County's highest-rated hazards are inland flooding, tornado, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 70% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Guadalupe County has been designated in 23 declarations since 1972, covering 7 disaster types including flood (6), hurricane (5), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 95.6 | 12 | 1 | $2.5M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 20.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 89.1 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 92.2 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 92.1 | 39 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 61.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 84.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 50.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 71.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 89.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 78.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Guadalupe County ranks in the 53rd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 53rd | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 39th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 64th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 88th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 40th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 63rd | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 63rd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 49.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 62 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 23 in 2016–20 vs 39 in 2021–25 (+70% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Guadalupe County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Guadalupe County, Texas are inland flooding, tornado, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Guadalupe County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Guadalupe County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is flood (6 declarations).
Has Guadalupe County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Guadalupe County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Guadalupe County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Bexar County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Wilson County, TX has the lowest (Relatively Low). Guadalupe County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Guadalupe County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Guadalupe County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Guadalupe County's composite score of 92 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 92% of US counties.