Yellowstone County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Yellowstone County has experienced 14 federally declared disasters since 1978, most recently Severe Storm And Flooding in 2022. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Yellowstone County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, cold wave, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 31% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (29th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Yellowstone County has been designated in 14 declarations since 1978, covering 5 disaster types including fire (7), flood (2), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Flood | Severe Storm And Flooding |
| 2021 | Fire | Buffalo Wildfire |
| 2020 | Fire | Falling Star Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2020 | Fire | Bobcat Fire |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2011 | Fire | Canyon Creek Fire |
| 2007 | Fire | Ford Road Fire |
| 2006 | Fire | Emerald Hills Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 total declarations since 1978.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 93.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 84.5 | 8 | 0 | $1.6M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 74.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 72.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.9 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 81.5 | 185 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 60.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 99.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 34.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 97.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 88.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 35.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 71.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 2 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Yellowstone County ranks in the 29th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 21st | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 25th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 44th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 55th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 87th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 86th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 25.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 194 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 115 in 2016–20 vs 79 in 2021–25 (-31% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Yellowstone County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Yellowstone County, Montana are winter weather, cold wave, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Yellowstone County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Yellowstone County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including declarations in 2022. The most common disaster type on record is fire (7 declarations).
Has Yellowstone County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Yellowstone County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storm And Flooding in 2022.
How does Yellowstone County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Carbon County, MT has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Treasure County, MT has the lowest (Very Low). Yellowstone County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Yellowstone County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Yellowstone County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Yellowstone County's composite score of 84 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 84% of US counties.