Carbon County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carbon County has experienced 13 federally declared disasters since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Carbon County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, wildfire, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 48% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (12th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carbon County has been designated in 13 declarations since 1978, covering 6 disaster types including flood (4), fire (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2024 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2022 | Flood | Severe Storm And Flooding |
| 2021 | Fire | Robertson Draw Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 total declarations since 1978.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 93.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 72.3 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 53.6 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 46.1 | 36 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 67.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 10.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 62.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 76.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 37.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 98.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively Low | 68.7 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 26.1 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carbon County ranks in the 12th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 34th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 26th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 21st | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 3rd | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 84th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 84th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 73.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 41 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 27 in 2016–20 vs 14 in 2021–25 (-48% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carbon County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carbon County, Montana are landslide, wildfire, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Carbon County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carbon County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (4 declarations).
Has Carbon County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Carbon County include Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds (2026), Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1978.
How does Carbon County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Yellowstone County, MT has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Sweet Grass County, MT has the lowest (Very Low). Carbon County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Carbon County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carbon County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carbon County's composite score of 60 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 60% of US counties.