Worcester County, MA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Worcester County has experienced 32 federally declared disasters since 1986, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Worcester County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, strong wind, and hurricane, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 27% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Worcester County has been designated in 32 declarations since 1986, covering 9 disaster types including severe storm (8), snowstorm (7), hurricane (7).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, And Flooding |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, And Flooding |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 32 total declarations since 1986.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 62.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 95.3 | 139 | 0 | $357K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 89.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 89.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | 13 | 0 | $5.1M |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 96.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 78.3 | 40 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 96.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 64.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 98.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 92.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 93.8 | 19 | 0 | $982K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 72.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 93.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Worcester County ranks in the 51st percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 51st | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 34th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 41st | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 63rd | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 74th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 18th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 19th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 47.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 211 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 122 in 2016–20 vs 89 in 2021–25 (-27% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Worcester County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Worcester County, Massachusetts are ice storm, strong wind, and hurricane. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Worcester County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Worcester County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (8 declarations).
Has Worcester County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Worcester County include Severe Storms And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1986.
How does Worcester County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Middlesex County, MA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Franklin County, MA has the lowest (Relatively Low). Worcester County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Worcester County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Worcester County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Worcester County's composite score of 94 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 94% of US counties.