Middlesex County, MA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Middlesex County has experienced 35 federally declared disasters since 1986, most recently Hurricane Lee in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Middlesex County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, inland flooding, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 37% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (29th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Middlesex County has been designated in 35 declarations since 1986, covering 9 disaster types including severe storm (9), snowstorm (8), hurricane (7).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, And Flooding |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, And Flooding |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Terrorist | Explosions |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 35 total declarations since 1986.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 72.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 98.5 | 129 | 0 | $1.5M |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 56.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 96.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.7 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 90.1 | 4 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 95.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 23.6 | 23 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 94.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 67.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 99.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 90.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 96.3 | 12 | 0 | $43K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 86.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 54.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Middlesex County ranks in the 29th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 12th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 6th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 69th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 83rd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 22nd | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 25th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 21.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 169 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 104 in 2016–20 vs 65 in 2021–25 (-37% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Middlesex County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Middlesex County, Massachusetts are ice storm, inland flooding, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Middlesex County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Middlesex County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (9 declarations).
Has Middlesex County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Middlesex County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Hurricane Lee in 2023.
How does Middlesex County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Essex County, MA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Rockingham County, NH has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Middlesex County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Middlesex County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Middlesex County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Middlesex County's composite score of 97 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 97% of US counties.