Shelby County, IA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Shelby County has experienced 20 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Storms And Tornadoes in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Shelby County's highest-rated hazards are drought, hail, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 109% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (3rd percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Shelby County has been designated in 20 declarations since 1965, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (8), flood (6), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Tornado | Severe Storms And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorm |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 7.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 36.2 | 9 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 63.2 | 7 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 78.5 | 18 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 42.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 30.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 41.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 54.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 78.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 71.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Shelby County ranks in the 3rd percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3rd | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 8th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 12th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 17th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 4th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 21st | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 23rd | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 34.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 34 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 11 in 2016–20 vs 23 in 2021–25 (+109% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Shelby County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Shelby County, Iowa are drought, hail, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Shelby County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Shelby County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (8 declarations).
Has Shelby County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Shelby County include Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024), Severe Storms And Tornadoes (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1965.
How does Shelby County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Pottawattamie County, IA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Harrison County, IA has the lowest (Very Low). Shelby County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Shelby County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Shelby County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Shelby County's composite score of 23 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 23% of US counties.