Scotland County, MO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Scotland County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Scotland County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, landslide, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 42% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Scotland County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1973, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (12), severe ice storm (4), flood (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 55.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 18.3 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 30.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 93.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 51.8 | 5 | 0 | $200K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 19.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 64 | 33 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 48.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 8.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 35.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 50.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 68.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 69.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Scotland County ranks in the 32nd percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32nd | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 64th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 25th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 1st | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 20th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 53rd | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 50th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 64.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 41 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 26 in 2016–20 vs 15 in 2021–25 (-42% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Scotland County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Scotland County, Missouri are heat wave, landslide, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Scotland County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Scotland County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (12 declarations).
Has Scotland County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Scotland County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2023.
How does Scotland County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Davis County, IA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Schuyler County, MO has the lowest (Very Low). Scotland County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Scotland County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Scotland County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Scotland County's composite score of 33 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 33% of US counties.