San Juan County, UT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
San Juan County has experienced 6 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Deer Creek Fire in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
San Juan County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, avalanche, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 273% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (96th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. San Juan County has been designated in 6 declarations since 1977, covering 4 disaster types including fire (2), biological (2), coastal storm (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fire | Deer Creek Fire |
| 2021 | Fire | Pack Creek Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 82.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 24 | 13 | 0 | $70K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 55.7 | 4 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 78.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 5.4 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.4 | 9 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 82.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 22.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 2.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 56.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 98.5 | 24 | 0 | $67K |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 89 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 20.8 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
San Juan County ranks in the 96th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 96th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 85th | High |
| Household characteristics | 97th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 90th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 88th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 53rd | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 64th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 81.0% | — |
NOAA tracked 52 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 11 in 2016–20 vs 41 in 2021–25 (+273% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in San Juan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in San Juan County, Utah are landslide, avalanche, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has San Juan County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. San Juan County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is fire (2 declarations).
Has San Juan County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for San Juan County include Deer Creek Fire (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does San Juan County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Montezuma County, CO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Wayne County, UT has the lowest (Very Low). San Juan County is rated Very Low overall.
How is San Juan County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
San Juan County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. San Juan County's composite score of 27 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 27% of US counties.