San Francisco County, CA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
San Francisco County has experienced 11 federally declared disasters since 1990, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very High — among the most at-risk counties in the country.
San Francisco County's highest-rated hazards are earthquake, inland flooding, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 71% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. San Francisco County has been designated in 11 declarations since 1990, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (4), flood (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms And Flooding |
| 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Mud And Landslides |
| 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding Landslides, Mud Flow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 total declarations since 1990.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 28.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 98.6 | 78 | 0 | $40 |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 62 | 8 | 1 | — |
| Earthquake | Very High | 99.8 | 4 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 93.9 | 6 | 4 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 34.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 18.1 | 10 | 0 | $40 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 29.9 | 6 | 0 | $30 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 69.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 98.4 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Relatively Moderate | 72.3 | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 28.3 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
San Francisco County ranks in the 48th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 48th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 29th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 3rd | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 93rd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 96th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 51st | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 54th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 0.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 106 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 82 in 2016–20 vs 24 in 2021–25 (-71% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in San Francisco County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in San Francisco County, California are earthquake, inland flooding, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very High — among the most at-risk counties in the country.
Has San Francisco County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. San Francisco County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (4 declarations).
Has San Francisco County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for San Francisco County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides in 2023.
How does San Francisco County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Alameda County, CA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Napa County, CA has the lowest (Relatively High). San Francisco County is rated Very High overall.
How is San Francisco County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
San Francisco County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. San Francisco County's composite score of 100 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 100% of US counties.