Marin County, CA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Marin County has experienced 26 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Marin County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, earthquake, and coastal flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 72% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Marin County has been designated in 26 declarations since 1965, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (10), flood (9), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, And Landslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 94.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 96.5 | 76 | 0 | $50 |
| Coastal Flooding | Very High | 97.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 98.7 | 7 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 74.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.7 | 11 | 0 | $500 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 34.1 | 1 | 0 | $300 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 51.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 99.2 | 21 | 0 | $10K |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Relatively Moderate | 69.2 | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 63.5 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Marin County ranks in the 37th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 16th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 36th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 68th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 67th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 90th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 87th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 27.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 109 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 85 in 2016–20 vs 24 in 2021–25 (-72% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Marin County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Marin County, California are landslide, earthquake, and coastal flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Marin County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Marin County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (10 declarations).
Has Marin County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Marin County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides in 2023.
How does Marin County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, San Francisco County, CA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Napa County, CA has the lowest (Relatively High). Marin County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Marin County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Marin County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Marin County's composite score of 96 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 96% of US counties.