Potter County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Potter County has experienced 20 federally declared disasters since 1989, most recently Stinky Fire in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Potter County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, hail, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 54% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (99th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Potter County has been designated in 20 declarations since 1989, covering 5 disaster types including fire (8), hurricane (5), severe ice storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fire | Stinky Fire |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Fire | Willow Creek South Fire Complex |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2011 | Fire | Stone Ridge Fire |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 total declarations since 1989.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 68 | 47 | 0 | $134K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 79.1 | 12 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 70.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 97.7 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very High | 99.6 | 186 | 0 | $18.1M |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 97.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 99.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 79 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 91.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 92.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 95.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Potter County ranks in the 99th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 99th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 95th | High |
| Household characteristics | 88th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 91st | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 99th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 99th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 98th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 22.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 236 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 162 in 2016–20 vs 74 in 2021–25 (-54% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Potter County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Potter County, Texas are winter weather, hail, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Potter County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Potter County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is fire (8 declarations).
Has Potter County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Potter County include Stinky Fire (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1989.
How does Potter County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Randall County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Oldham County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Potter County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Potter County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Potter County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Potter County's composite score of 91 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 91% of US counties.