Carson County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carson County has experienced 15 federally declared disasters since 1992, most recently North 207 Fire in 2022. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Carson County's highest-rated hazards are drought, wildfire, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 57% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (8th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carson County has been designated in 15 declarations since 1992, covering 6 disaster types including fire (5), severe ice storm (3), hurricane (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Fire | North 207 Fire |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 total declarations since 1992.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 86.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 3.6 | 16 | 0 | $2K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 24.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 40.8 | 8 | 0 | $20K |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 80 | 132 | 0 | $15K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 34.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 60.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 30 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 28.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 97.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carson County ranks in the 8th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 9th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 22nd | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 46th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 9th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 99th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 98th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 47.0% | — |
NOAA tracked 156 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 109 in 2016–20 vs 47 in 2021–25 (-57% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carson County, Texas are drought, wildfire, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Carson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carson County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including declarations in 2022. The most common disaster type on record is fire (5 declarations).
Has Carson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Carson County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is North 207 Fire in 2022.
How does Carson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Potter County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Roberts County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Carson County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Carson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carson County's composite score of 25 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 25% of US counties.