Gray County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Gray County has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1970, most recently Rest Area Fire in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Gray County's highest-rated hazards are drought, wildfire, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 55% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (86th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Gray County has been designated in 16 declarations since 1970, covering 6 disaster types including fire (5), severe ice storm (3), hurricane (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fire | Rest Area Fire |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Fire | Mcclellan Fire |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1970.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 93.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 24.6 | 8 | 0 | $1K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 45.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 23.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 76.8 | 6 | 0 | $190K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 93.3 | 122 | 0 | $13K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 75.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 89.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 79 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 76.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 74.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 97.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 4.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Gray County ranks in the 86th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 86th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 93rd | High |
| Household characteristics | 83rd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 77th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 56th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 99th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 99th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 26.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 136 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 94 in 2016–20 vs 42 in 2021–25 (-55% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Gray County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Gray County, Texas are drought, wildfire, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Gray County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Gray County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is fire (5 declarations).
Has Gray County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Gray County include Rest Area Fire (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1970.
How does Gray County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Wheeler County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and Roberts County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Gray County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Gray County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Gray County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Gray County's composite score of 60 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 60% of US counties.