Polk County, AR
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Polk County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Polk County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, wildfire, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 57% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Polk County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1968, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (8), severe ice storm (4), tornado (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1968.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 82.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 53.4 | 17 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 55.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 68.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 63.5 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 45.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 80.4 | 32 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 57.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 64.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 91.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 28.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 58.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 75.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Polk County ranks in the 69th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 69th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 75th | High |
| Household characteristics | 84th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 38th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 42nd | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 78th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 73rd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 84.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 50 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 35 in 2016–20 vs 15 in 2021–25 (-57% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Polk County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Polk County, Arkansas are ice storm, wildfire, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Polk County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Polk County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (8 declarations).
Has Polk County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Polk County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1968.
How does Polk County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Le Flore County, OK has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Pike County, AR has the lowest (Very Low). Polk County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Polk County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Polk County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Polk County's composite score of 46 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 46% of US counties.