Ontario County, NY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Ontario County has experienced 20 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Remnants Of Tropical Storm Debby in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Ontario County's highest-rated hazards are inland flooding, ice storm, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 214% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (27th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Ontario County has been designated in 20 declarations since 1972, covering 9 disaster types including severe storm (5), snowstorm (3), flood (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants Of Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 38.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 78.8 | 41 | 0 | $362K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 53.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 47 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 44 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 58.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 57.3 | 14 | 0 | $22K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 76.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 77.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 12.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 55.8 | 1 | 0 | $35K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 75.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 54.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 43.9 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Ontario County ranks in the 27th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 13th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 32nd | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 35th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 64th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 10th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 10th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 66.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 58 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 14 in 2016–20 vs 44 in 2021–25 (+214% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Ontario County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Ontario County, New York are inland flooding, ice storm, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Ontario County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Ontario County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (5 declarations).
Has Ontario County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Ontario County include Remnants Of Tropical Storm Debby (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Ontario County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Monroe County, NY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Schuyler County, NY has the lowest (Very Low). Ontario County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Ontario County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Ontario County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Ontario County's composite score of 64 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 64% of US counties.