Olmsted County, MN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Olmsted County has experienced 15 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Olmsted County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, tornado, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 28% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (24th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Olmsted County has been designated in 15 declarations since 1965, covering 7 disaster types including flood (4), severe storm (4), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2010 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 1998 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.9 | 18 | 0 | $373K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 16.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 72.5 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 89.3 | 6 | 0 | $188K |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 83.4 | 90 | 0 | $927K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 70.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 83.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 57.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 92.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 54.4 | 4 | 0 | $225K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 57.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 74.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Olmsted County ranks in the 24th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 6th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 28th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 57th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 64th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 6th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 6th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 33.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 124 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 72 in 2016–20 vs 52 in 2021–25 (-28% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Olmsted County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Olmsted County, Minnesota are cold wave, tornado, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Olmsted County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Olmsted County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is flood (4 declarations).
Has Olmsted County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Olmsted County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Olmsted County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Winona County, MN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Dodge County, MN has the lowest (Very Low). Olmsted County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Olmsted County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Olmsted County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Olmsted County's composite score of 82 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 82% of US counties.