Nelson County, KY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Nelson County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1970, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Nelson County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, lightning, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 22% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (9th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Nelson County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1970, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (10), severe ice storm (3), snowstorm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, And Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1970.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 24.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 62.7 | 21 | 1 | $10K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 70.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 44.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 69.1 | 3 | 0 | $200K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 25.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 40.1 | 27 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 88.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 74.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 61.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 63.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 85.5 | 1 | 0 | $25K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 38.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Nelson County ranks in the 9th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 14th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 35th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 29th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 5th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 19th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 18th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 82.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 51 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 23 in 2016–20 vs 28 in 2021–25 (+22% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Nelson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Nelson County, Kentucky are strong wind, lightning, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Nelson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Nelson County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (10 declarations).
Has Nelson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Nelson County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1970.
How does Nelson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Hardin County, KY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Larue County, KY has the lowest (Very Low). Nelson County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Nelson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Nelson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Nelson County's composite score of 55 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 55% of US counties.