Morgan County, IL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Morgan County has experienced 17 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Morgan County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, drought, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 46% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Morgan County has been designated in 17 declarations since 1973, covering 6 disaster types including flood (6), severe storm (4), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Tornadoes And Severe Storms |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 61.2 | 11 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 81.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 83.4 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 49.6 | 12 | 0 | $10K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 68.7 | 38 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 87.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 46.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 59.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 94.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 52 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 92.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 64.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Morgan County ranks in the 49th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 51st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 32nd | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 36th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 64th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 3rd | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 3rd | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 22.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 64 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 26 in 2016–20 vs 38 in 2021–25 (+46% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Morgan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Morgan County, Illinois are cold wave, drought, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Morgan County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Morgan County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is flood (6 declarations).
Has Morgan County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Morgan County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023.
How does Morgan County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Sangamon County, IL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Scott County, IL has the lowest (Very Low). Morgan County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Morgan County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Morgan County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Morgan County's composite score of 71 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 71% of US counties.