Menard County, IL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Menard County has experienced 12 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes in 2022. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Menard County's highest-rated hazards are drought, earthquake, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 38% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (3rd percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Menard County has been designated in 12 declarations since 1973, covering 6 disaster types including snowstorm (4), biological (2), tornado (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes And Flooding |
| 2001 | Snowstorm | Illinois Winter Snow Storms |
| 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
| 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 3.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 29.4 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 68 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 60.1 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 53.2 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 51.6 | 17 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 28.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 38.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 53.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 78.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 65.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Menard County ranks in the 3rd percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3rd | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 5th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 38th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 5th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 2nd | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 8th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 8th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 33.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 31 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 13 in 2016–20 vs 18 in 2021–25 (+38% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Menard County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Menard County, Illinois are drought, earthquake, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Menard County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Menard County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2022. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (4 declarations).
Has Menard County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Menard County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes in 2022.
How does Menard County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Sangamon County, IL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Cass County, IL has the lowest (Very Low). Menard County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Menard County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Menard County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Menard County's composite score of 29 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 29% of US counties.