Monterey County, CA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Monterey County has experienced 33 federally declared disasters since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Monterey County's highest-rated hazards are drought, landslide, and earthquake, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 165 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (87th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Monterey County has been designated in 33 declarations since 1967, covering 10 disaster types including severe storm (8), flood (8), fire (7).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2020 | Fire | River Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2020 | Fire | Carmel Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 total declarations since 1967.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 97.3 | 117 | 1 | $80 |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 59.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 99.4 | 196 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.8 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.7 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 33.5 | 18 | 0 | $70 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 63.7 | 3 | 0 | $2K |
| Drought | Very High | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 99.9 | 29 | 0 | $10.0M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 30.8 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 46.2 | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Monterey County ranks in the 87th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 87th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 83rd | High |
| Household characteristics | 58th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 96th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 87th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 99th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 99th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 29.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 165 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 80 in 2016–20 vs 85 in 2021–25 (+6% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Monterey County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Monterey County, California are drought, landslide, and earthquake. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Monterey County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Monterey County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (8 declarations).
Has Monterey County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Monterey County include Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1967.
How does Monterey County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Santa Clara County, CA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and San Benito County, CA has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Monterey County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Monterey County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Monterey County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Monterey County's composite score of 99 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 99% of US counties.