Missoula County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Missoula County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Missoula County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, landslide, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 26% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (28th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Missoula County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1974, covering 7 disaster types including fire (8), severe storm (4), flood (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2024 | Straight-Line Winds | Straight-Line Winds |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2017 | Fire | Rice Ridge Fire |
| 2017 | Fire | Lolo Peak Fire |
| 2013 | Fire | Lolo Creek Fire Complex |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2007 | Fire | Jocko Lakes Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1974.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 68.6 | 19 | 0 | $480K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 91.3 | 9 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 53.5 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 13.3 | 22 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 80.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 89.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 93.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 95.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 91.5 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Missoula County ranks in the 28th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 35th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 2nd | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 37th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 73rd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 96th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 96th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 42.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 43 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 19 in 2016–20 vs 24 in 2021–25 (+26% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Missoula County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Missoula County, Montana are wildfire, landslide, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Missoula County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Missoula County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is fire (8 declarations).
Has Missoula County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Missoula County include Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds (2026), Straight-Line Winds (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1974.
How does Missoula County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Ravalli County, MT has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Mineral County, MT has the lowest (Very Low). Missoula County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Missoula County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Missoula County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Missoula County's composite score of 77 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 77% of US counties.