Maui County, HI
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Maui County has experienced 30 federally declared disasters since 1968, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Maui County's highest-rated hazards are volcanic activity, earthquake, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 21% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Maui County has been designated in 30 declarations since 1968, covering 8 disaster types including fire (10), flood (5), severe storm (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2025 | Fire | Holomua Fire |
| 2023 | Fire | Wildfires And High Winds |
| 2023 | Fire | Upcountry Fire |
| 2023 | Fire | Pulehu Fire |
| 2023 | Fire | Lahaina Fire |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2021 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2020 | Fire | Kahana Ridge Fire |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Douglas |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 total declarations since 1968.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 93.7 | 59 | 1 | $45.7M |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 54 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 97.1 | 40 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 69.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 3.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 93.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 19.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 55.8 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Relatively High | 90.8 | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Relatively High | 98.4 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Maui County ranks in the 49th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 29th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 40th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 96th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 60th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 86th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 90th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 35.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 52 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 29 in 2016–20 vs 23 in 2021–25 (-21% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Maui County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Maui County, Hawaii are volcanic activity, earthquake, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Maui County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Maui County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is fire (10 declarations).
Has Maui County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Maui County include Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2026), Holomua Fire (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1968.
How does Maui County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, San Francisco County, CA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Kalawao County, HI has the lowest (Very Low). Maui County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Maui County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Maui County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Maui County's composite score of 93 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 93% of US counties.