Mahoning County, OH
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Mahoning County has experienced 12 federally declared disasters since 1978, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Mahoning County's highest-rated hazards are hail, strong wind, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 27% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Mahoning County has been designated in 12 declarations since 1978, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (6), biological (2), tornado (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslide |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2003 | Tornado | Tornadoes, Flooding, Severe Storms, And High Winds |
| 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 1992 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 total declarations since 1978.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 48.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.1 | 6 | 0 | $8.9M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 73.3 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 78.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 91.2 | 1 | 0 | $12K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 68.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 94.8 | 22 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 93.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 85.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 83.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 31.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 92.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Mahoning County ranks in the 62nd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 62nd | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 56th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 72nd | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 61st | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 50th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 21st | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 21st | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 31.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 25 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 11 in 2016–20 vs 14 in 2021–25 (+27% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Mahoning County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Mahoning County, Ohio are hail, strong wind, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Mahoning County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Mahoning County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (6 declarations).
Has Mahoning County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Mahoning County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Mahoning County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Trumbull County, OH has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Portage County, OH has the lowest (Relatively Low). Mahoning County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Mahoning County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Mahoning County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Mahoning County's composite score of 84 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 84% of US counties.