Guthrie County, IA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Guthrie County has experienced 17 federally declared disasters since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes in 2022. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Guthrie County's highest-rated hazards are drought, landslide, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 32% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (2nd percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Guthrie County has been designated in 17 declarations since 1974, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (8), flood (4), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorm |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 total declarations since 1974.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 39.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 22 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 9.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 30 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 64.1 | 12 | 0 | $576K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 59.9 | 24 | 0 | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 42.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 34.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 35.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 31.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 94.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 73.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Guthrie County ranks in the 2nd percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2nd | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 5th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 12th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 11th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 4th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 44th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 42nd | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 53.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 42 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 25 in 2016–20 vs 17 in 2021–25 (-32% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Guthrie County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Guthrie County, Iowa are drought, landslide, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Guthrie County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Guthrie County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including declarations in 2022. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (8 declarations).
Has Guthrie County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Guthrie County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes in 2022.
How does Guthrie County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Dallas County, IA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Greene County, IA has the lowest (Very Low). Guthrie County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Guthrie County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Guthrie County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Guthrie County's composite score of 27 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 27% of US counties.