Erie County, PA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Erie County has experienced 11 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Erie County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, winter weather, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 24% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Erie County has been designated in 11 declarations since 1972, covering 6 disaster types including hurricane (3), biological (2), snowstorm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding Associated With Tropical Depression Frances |
| 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm |
| 1985 | Tornado | Severe Storms, High Winds & Tornadoes |
| 1977 | Snowstorm | Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 36.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 90.7 | 11 | 2 | $9.1M |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | 36.4 | 3 | 0 | $8.4M |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 60.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 40.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 66.6 | 4 | 0 | $610K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 71.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 51.9 | 26 | 0 | $32K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 93.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 70.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 38.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 44.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Erie County ranks in the 62nd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 62nd | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 46th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 68th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 48th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 78th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 24th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 23rd | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 36.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 44 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 25 in 2016–20 vs 19 in 2021–25 (-24% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Erie County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Erie County, Pennsylvania are lightning, winter weather, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Erie County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Erie County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (3 declarations).
Has Erie County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Erie County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Erie County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Chautauqua County, NY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Venango County, PA has the lowest (Relatively Low). Erie County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Erie County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Erie County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Erie County's composite score of 84 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 84% of US counties.