Chautauqua County, NY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Chautauqua County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Chautauqua County's highest-rated hazards are inland flooding, lightning, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 45% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (72nd percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Chautauqua County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1972, covering 9 disaster types including snowstorm (7), severe storm (6), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, And Flooding |
| 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 43.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 91.3 | 33 | 0 | $227K |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | 23.6 | 15 | 0 | $6.8M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 43.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 29.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 76.1 | 2 | 0 | $150K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 68.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 29.1 | 27 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 84.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 66.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 68.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 89.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 57.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 14.2 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Chautauqua County ranks in the 72nd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 72nd | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 61st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 76th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 41st | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 80th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 26th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 24th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 62.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 76 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 49 in 2016–20 vs 27 in 2021–25 (-45% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Chautauqua County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Chautauqua County, New York are inland flooding, lightning, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Chautauqua County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Chautauqua County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (7 declarations).
Has Chautauqua County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Chautauqua County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm in 2023.
How does Chautauqua County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Erie County, NY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Forest County, PA has the lowest (Very Low). Chautauqua County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Chautauqua County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Chautauqua County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Chautauqua County's composite score of 85 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 85% of US counties.