Ellis County, OK
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Ellis County has experienced 29 federally declared disasters since 1990, most recently 840 Road Fire in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Ellis County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, drought, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 118% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Ellis County has been designated in 29 declarations since 1990, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (11), severe ice storm (8), fire (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fire | 840 Road Fire |
| 2024 | Fire | Catesby Fire |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Fire | Gauge Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 total declarations since 1990.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 85.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 7 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 22.6 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 28.9 | 20 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 38.2 | 10 | 0 | $391K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 63.2 | 58 | 0 | $10K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 39.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 54.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 94.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 52.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 93.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 37.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Ellis County ranks in the 53rd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 53rd | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 67th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 82nd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 43rd | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 14th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 99th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 98th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 61.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 89 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 28 in 2016–20 vs 61 in 2021–25 (+118% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Ellis County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Ellis County, Oklahoma are ice storm, drought, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Ellis County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Ellis County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (11 declarations).
Has Ellis County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Ellis County include 840 Road Fire (2025), Catesby Fire (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1990.
How does Ellis County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Harper County, OK has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Dewey County, OK has the lowest (Very Low). Ellis County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Ellis County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Ellis County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Ellis County's composite score of 25 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 25% of US counties.