Coles County, IL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Coles County has experienced 9 federally declared disasters since 1974, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Coles County's highest-rated hazards are drought, earthquake, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 48 storm events in the county over the past decade.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Coles County has been designated in 9 declarations since 1974, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (2), biological (2), tornado (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes And Flooding |
| 1974 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 9.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 74.5 | 14 | 0 | $2.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 87.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 70.7 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 72.1 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 38.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 69.9 | 24 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 56.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 44.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 74.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 44.2 | 2 | 0 | $105K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 89.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 66.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Coles County ranks in the 56th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 56th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 69th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 6th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 30th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 89th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 3rd | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 3rd | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 23.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 48 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 24 in 2016–20 vs 24 in 2021–25 (0% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Coles County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Coles County, Illinois are drought, earthquake, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Coles County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Coles County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (2 declarations).
Has Coles County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Coles County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023.
How does Coles County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Douglas County, IL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Cumberland County, IL has the lowest (Very Low). Coles County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Coles County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Coles County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Coles County's composite score of 70 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 70% of US counties.