Shelby County, IL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Shelby County has experienced 10 federally declared disasters since 1990, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes in 2022. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Shelby County's highest-rated hazards are drought, cold wave, and earthquake, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 38% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (11th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Shelby County has been designated in 10 declarations since 1990, covering 7 disaster types including biological (2), tornado (2), snowstorm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes And Flooding |
| 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
| 1990 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 48.3 | 23 | 1 | $25K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 78.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 56.3 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 39.8 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 40.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 49.6 | 11 | 0 | $800K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 42.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 53.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 26.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 93.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 63.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Shelby County ranks in the 11th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 9th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 26th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 1st | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 30th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 8th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 8th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 37.0% | — |
NOAA tracked 38 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 16 in 2016–20 vs 22 in 2021–25 (+38% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Shelby County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Shelby County, Illinois are drought, cold wave, and earthquake. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Shelby County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Shelby County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including declarations in 2022. The most common disaster type on record is biological (2 declarations).
Has Shelby County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Shelby County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes in 2022.
How does Shelby County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Coles County, IL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Cumberland County, IL has the lowest (Very Low). Shelby County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Shelby County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Shelby County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Shelby County's composite score of 52 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 52% of US counties.