Cavalier County, ND
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Cavalier County has experienced 26 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm And Flooding in 2022. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Cavalier County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, ice storm, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 81% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (10th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Cavalier County has been designated in 26 declarations since 1969, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (11), flood (11), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Ground Saturation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 52.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 6.8 | 3 | 0 | $101K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 1.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 16.9 | 9 | 0 | $1.6M |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 72.9 | 39 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 42.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 77.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 72.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 35 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 40.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Cavalier County ranks in the 10th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 6th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 39th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 15th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 20th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 39th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 42nd | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 42.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 51 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 43 in 2016–20 vs 8 in 2021–25 (-81% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Cavalier County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Cavalier County, North Dakota are winter weather, ice storm, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Cavalier County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Cavalier County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2022. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (11 declarations).
Has Cavalier County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Cavalier County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storm And Flooding in 2022.
How does Cavalier County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Rolette County, ND has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Towner County, ND has the lowest (Very Low). Cavalier County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Cavalier County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Cavalier County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Cavalier County's composite score of 12 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 12% of US counties.