Nelson County, ND
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Nelson County has experienced 33 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Nelson County's highest-rated hazards are hail, ice storm, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 68% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (5th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Nelson County has been designated in 33 declarations since 1965, covering 5 disaster types including flood (17), severe storm (12), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2023 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 67.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 4.3 | 2 | 0 | $250K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 1.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 21.5 | 10 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 81 | 25 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 28.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 74.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 79.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 57.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 27.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 31.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Nelson County ranks in the 5th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 3rd | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 40th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 22nd | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 6th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 45th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 48th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 66.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 37 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 28 in 2016–20 vs 9 in 2021–25 (-68% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Nelson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Nelson County, North Dakota are hail, ice storm, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Nelson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Nelson County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (17 declarations).
Has Nelson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Nelson County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1965.
How does Nelson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Grand Forks County, ND has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Eddy County, ND has the lowest (Very Low). Nelson County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Nelson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Nelson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Nelson County's composite score of 8 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 8% of US counties.