Bailey County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Bailey County has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1992, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Bailey County's highest-rated hazards are drought, hail, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 47% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (78th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Bailey County has been designated in 16 declarations since 1992, covering 6 disaster types including fire (4), severe ice storm (3), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1992.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 88.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 13.6 | 6 | 0 | $25K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 24.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 42.4 | 7 | 0 | $50K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 38.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 94.9 | 24 | 0 | $425K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 71.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 66.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 18.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 64.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 96.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Bailey County ranks in the 78th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 78th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 47th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 91st | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 97th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 78th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 97th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 97th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 40.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 37 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 15 in 2016–20 vs 22 in 2021–25 (+47% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Bailey County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Bailey County, Texas are drought, hail, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Bailey County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Bailey County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is fire (4 declarations).
Has Bailey County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Bailey County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1992.
How does Bailey County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Roosevelt County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Cochran County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Bailey County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Bailey County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Bailey County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Bailey County's composite score of 42 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 42% of US counties.