Lake Elmo, MN
Local storm history & FEMA National Risk Index data
Lake Elmo is rated Relatively Moderate for overall natural hazard risk — near the middle compared to other US counties — based on FEMA's National Risk Index for Washington County, MN. The county's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, hail, and tornado.
Storm events near Lake Elmo
NOAA-recorded tornado, hail, and flood events within 25 miles of Lake Elmo's center, 2016–2026 — the only hazards NOAA reports with exact coordinates, so these counts are specific to Lake Elmo itself, not the whole county.
County-wide hazard risk
Every other hazard FEMA and NOAA track — including drought — is only scored at the county level. These are Washington County's FEMA National Risk Index scores, covering Lake Elmo along with the rest of the county, not a Lake Elmo-specific figure.
| Hazard | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | 64 | Relatively Low |
| Inland Flooding | 83.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Coastal Flooding | — | Not Applicable |
| Earthquake | 13.3 | Very Low |
| Heat Wave | 80.3 | Relatively Moderate |
| Tornado | 94.4 | Relatively High |
| Avalanche | — | Not Applicable |
| Cold Wave | 87.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Drought | 12.9 | Very Low |
| Hail | 94.8 | Relatively High |
| Hurricane | — | Not Applicable |
| Ice Storm | 65.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Landslide | 72.6 | Relatively Low |
| Lightning | 88.4 | Relatively High |
| Strong Wind | 98.3 | Very High |
| Tsunami | — | Not Applicable |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable |
| Winter Weather | 76.6 | Relatively Moderate |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. See the methodology page for definitions, or the full Washington County risk profile for disaster declarations, social vulnerability, and climate projection data.
Other cities in Washington County:
More on Washington County:
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards is Lake Elmo, MN at risk of?
Lake Elmo is rated Relatively Moderate for overall natural hazard risk by FEMA's National Risk Index — near the middle compared to other US counties. The highest-rated hazards for Washington County, where Lake Elmo is located, are strong wind, hail, and tornado.
What is Lake Elmo's biggest natural hazard risk?
Strong Wind is the highest-rated hazard for Washington County, where Lake Elmo is located, scoring 98.3 out of 100 on FEMA's National Risk Index (rated "Very High").
Is Lake Elmo a high-risk area for natural disasters?
Somewhat — Lake Elmo carries near the middle compared to other US counties for overall natural hazard risk, per FEMA's National Risk Index rating of "Relatively Moderate" for Washington County.
Has Lake Elmo had tornadoes, hail, or flooding?
NOAA has recorded 27 tornado, 375 hail, 29 inland flooding events within 25 miles of Lake Elmo since 2016.