Warren County, NY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Warren County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1976, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Warren County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, cold wave, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 31% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (20th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Warren County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1976, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (4), flood (4), hurricane (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1976.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 24.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 71.5 | 56 | 0 | $4.9M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 65.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 35.5 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 39 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 67.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 30 | 7 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 45.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 52 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 54.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 83.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 92.8 | 2 | 0 | $20K |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 77.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 64 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Warren County ranks in the 20th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 23rd | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 13th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 20th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 42nd | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 16th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 16th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 63.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 74 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 32 in 2016–20 vs 42 in 2021–25 (+31% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Warren County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Warren County, New York are lightning, cold wave, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Warren County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Warren County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (4 declarations).
Has Warren County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Warren County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Warren County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Saratoga County, NY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Hamilton County, NY has the lowest (Very Low). Warren County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Warren County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Warren County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Warren County's composite score of 62 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 62% of US counties.