Warren County, NJ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Warren County has experienced 27 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Storm And Flooding in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Warren County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, cold wave, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 18% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (25th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Warren County has been designated in 27 declarations since 1965, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (8), hurricane (8), snowstorm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm And Flooding |
| 2021 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants Of Hurricane Ida |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants Of Hurricane Ida |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 23.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | 27 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 70.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 72.2 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 49.7 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 79.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 14.7 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 90.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 83.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 61 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 72.7 | 3 | 0 | $10 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 78.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 77.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 41.2 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Warren County ranks in the 25th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 29th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 13th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 56th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 31st | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 31st | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 31st | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 63.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 40 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 22 in 2016–20 vs 18 in 2021–25 (-18% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Warren County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Warren County, New Jersey are strong wind, cold wave, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Warren County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Warren County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (8 declarations).
Has Warren County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Warren County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storm And Flooding in 2023.
How does Warren County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Morris County, NJ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Sussex County, NJ has the lowest (Relatively Low). Warren County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Warren County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Warren County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Warren County's composite score of 81 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 81% of US counties.