Warren County, KY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Warren County has experienced 26 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Warren County's highest-rated hazards are hail, tornado, and earthquake, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 22% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (77th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Warren County has been designated in 26 declarations since 1969, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (10), tornado (4), flood (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 87.3 | 32 | 0 | $50K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 90.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 93.1 | 10 | 17 | $700K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 44.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very High | 99.5 | 37 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 75.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 90.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 79 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 75.7 | 2 | 0 | $200K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 43.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 36.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Warren County ranks in the 77th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 77th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 63rd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 60th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 58th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 94th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 20th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 18th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 64.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 80 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 36 in 2016–20 vs 44 in 2021–25 (+22% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Warren County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Warren County, Kentucky are hail, tornado, and earthquake. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Warren County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Warren County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (10 declarations).
Has Warren County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Warren County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Warren County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Barren County, KY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Edmonson County, KY has the lowest (Very Low). Warren County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Warren County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Warren County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Warren County's composite score of 89 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 89% of US counties.