Warren County, IL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Warren County has experienced 9 federally declared disasters since 1993, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Warren County's highest-rated hazards are drought, heat wave, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 29 storm events in the county over the past decade.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Warren County has been designated in 9 declarations since 1993, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (2), biological (2), flood (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
| 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 11 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 34.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 65.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.5 | 8 | 0 | $200K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 65.4 | 17 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 46.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 32.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 55 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 53.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 36.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 49.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Warren County ranks in the 54th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 54th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 47th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 71st | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 50th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 49th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 4th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 4th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 26.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 29 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 15 in 2016–20 vs 14 in 2021–25 (-7% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Warren County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Warren County, Illinois are drought, heat wave, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Warren County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Warren County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (2 declarations).
Has Warren County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Warren County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023.
How does Warren County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Fulton County, IL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Mercer County, IL has the lowest (Very Low). Warren County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Warren County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Warren County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Warren County's composite score of 16 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 16% of US counties.