McDonough County, IL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
McDonough County has experienced 11 federally declared disasters since 1999, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
McDonough County's highest-rated hazards are drought, heat wave, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 68% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. McDonough County has been designated in 11 declarations since 1999, covering 6 disaster types including snowstorm (4), severe storm (2), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes And Flooding |
| 2001 | Snowstorm | Illinois Winter Snow Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 total declarations since 1999.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 21.1 | 17 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 59.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 52 | 15 | 0 | $222K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 74.4 | 58 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 72.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 53.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 65.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 72.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 47.3 | 1 | 0 | $500 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 83.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 61.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
McDonough County ranks in the 54th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 54th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 67th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 6th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 38th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 81st | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 5th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 5th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 26.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 91 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 34 in 2016–20 vs 57 in 2021–25 (+68% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in McDonough County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in McDonough County, Illinois are drought, heat wave, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has McDonough County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. McDonough County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1999, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (4 declarations).
Has McDonough County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for McDonough County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023.
How does McDonough County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Fulton County, IL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Brown County, IL has the lowest (Very Low). McDonough County is rated Very Low overall.
How is McDonough County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
McDonough County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. McDonough County's composite score of 38 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 38% of US counties.