Valley County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Valley County has experienced 13 federally declared disasters since 1986, most recently Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Valley County's highest-rated hazards are hail, cold wave, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 45% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (20th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Valley County has been designated in 13 declarations since 1986, covering 5 disaster types including flood (6), severe storm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 total declarations since 1986.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 49.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 34.2 | 41 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 23 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 25.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 14.6 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 88.1 | 78 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 61.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 8.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 85.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 15.6 | 3 | 0 | $2K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 37.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 42 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Valley County ranks in the 20th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 20th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 33rd | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 44th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 21st | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 60th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 63rd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 52.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 129 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 83 in 2016–20 vs 46 in 2021–25 (-45% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Valley County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Valley County, Montana are hail, cold wave, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Valley County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Valley County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (6 declarations).
Has Valley County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Valley County include Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1986.
How does Valley County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Roosevelt County, MT has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Daniels County, MT has the lowest (Very Low). Valley County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Valley County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Valley County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Valley County's composite score of 36 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 36% of US counties.