Tuscola County, MI
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Tuscola County has experienced 12 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Tuscola County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, winter weather, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Community vulnerability is relatively low (28th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Tuscola County has been designated in 12 declarations since 1973, covering 5 disaster types including flood (5), biological (2), snowstorm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2001 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 1986 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1985 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| 1976 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Icing & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 79.2 | 2 | 0 | $4.2M |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | 32.4 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 33.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 43.9 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 74.4 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 49.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 67.3 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 90.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 89.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 69.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 48.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 42.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Tuscola County ranks in the 28th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 38th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 26th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 21st | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 35th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 6th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 5th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 61.2% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Tuscola County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Tuscola County, Michigan are strong wind, winter weather, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Tuscola County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Tuscola County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (5 declarations).
Has Tuscola County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Tuscola County include Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Tuscola County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Genesee County, MI has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Arenac County, MI has the lowest (Very Low). Tuscola County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Tuscola County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Tuscola County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Tuscola County's composite score of 73 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 73% of US counties.