Toole County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Toole County has experienced 12 federally declared disasters since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Toole County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, wildfire, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Toole County has been designated in 12 declarations since 1975, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (5), flood (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Ice Jams, Soil Saturation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 total declarations since 1975.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 47.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 17.8 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 29.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 3.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.5 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 42 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 6.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 76.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 39.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 24.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 7 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Toole County ranks in the 60th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 60th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 61st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 7th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 43rd | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 96th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 35th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 35th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 55.2% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Toole County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Toole County, Montana are cold wave, wildfire, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Toole County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Toole County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (5 declarations).
Has Toole County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Toole County include Severe Winter Storm And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1975.
How does Toole County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Glacier County, MT has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Liberty County, MT has the lowest (Very Low). Toole County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Toole County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Toole County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Toole County's composite score of 13 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 13% of US counties.