Sullivan County, PA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Sullivan County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Tropical Storm Debby in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Sullivan County's highest-rated hazards are avalanche, landslide, and hurricane, with its top risk rated "Very Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 20 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is relatively low (24th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Sullivan County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1972, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (7), flood (7), hurricane (6).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2011 | Flood | Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 37.4 | 14 | 0 | $7.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 24.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 6.9 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 12.2 | 2 | 0 | $500K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 58.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.4 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 30.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 11.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 10.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 64.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 64.3 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Sullivan County ranks in the 24th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 28th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 27th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 13th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 40th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 27th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 28th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 95.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 20 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 10 in 2016–20 vs 10 in 2021–25 (0% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Sullivan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Sullivan County, Pennsylvania are avalanche, landslide, and hurricane. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Sullivan County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Sullivan County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (7 declarations).
Has Sullivan County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Sullivan County include Tropical Storm Debby (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Sullivan County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Luzerne County, PA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Montour County, PA has the lowest (Very Low). Sullivan County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Sullivan County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Sullivan County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Sullivan County's composite score of 11 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 11% of US counties.