Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area has experienced 23 federally declared disasters since 1989, most recently Mukluk Fire in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, avalanche, and earthquake, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Southeast Fairbanks Census Area has been designated in 23 declarations since 1989, covering 6 disaster types including flood (8), biological (8), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fire | Mukluk Fire |
| 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2022 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 total declarations since 1989.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 97.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 86.5 | 3 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Insufficient Data | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 68.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 11.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 80.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 86.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 94.4 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 42.3 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area ranks in the 68th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 68th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 49th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 69th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 64th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 78th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 96th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 97th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 85.9% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, Alaska are wildfire, avalanche, and earthquake. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Southeast Fairbanks Census Area received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Southeast Fairbanks Census Area has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (8 declarations).
Has Southeast Fairbanks Census Area had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Southeast Fairbanks Census Area include Mukluk Fire (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1989.
How does Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Anchorage Municipality, AK has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Chugach Census Area, AK has the lowest (Very Low). Southeast Fairbanks Census Area is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's composite score of 57 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 57% of US counties.