Sebastian County, AR
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Sebastian County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Sebastian County's highest-rated hazards are ice storm, heat wave, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 39% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (87th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Sebastian County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1968, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (5), flood (4), severe ice storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1968.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 90.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.1 | 42 | 3 | $775K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 85.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 96.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 94.2 | 15 | 0 | $3.5M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 49.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 65.6 | 66 | 0 | $1.5M |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 91.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 99.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 93.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 38.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 58.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Sebastian County ranks in the 87th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 87th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 80th | High |
| Household characteristics | 97th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 70th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 65th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 84th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 80th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 39.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 122 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 51 in 2016–20 vs 71 in 2021–25 (+39% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Sebastian County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Sebastian County, Arkansas are ice storm, heat wave, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Sebastian County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Sebastian County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (5 declarations).
Has Sebastian County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Sebastian County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1968.
How does Sebastian County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Le Flore County, OK has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Scott County, AR has the lowest (Very Low). Sebastian County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Sebastian County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Sebastian County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Sebastian County's composite score of 87 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 87% of US counties.