Sarasota County, FL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Sarasota County has experienced 48 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Hurricane Milton in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Sarasota County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, hurricane, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 41% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Sarasota County has been designated in 48 declarations since 1969, covering 9 disaster types including hurricane (21), severe storm (7), tropical storm (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
Showing the 10 most recent of 48 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 93.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 95.7 | 12 | 1 | $11.3M |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively High | 93.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 34.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 89.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 92.5 | 8 | 0 | $13.0M |
| Hurricane | Very High | 99.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 21 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 87.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 31.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 99.6 | 4 | 2 | $50K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 37.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 43.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Sarasota County ranks in the 37th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 29th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 41st | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 50th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 46th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 92nd | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 92nd | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 16.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 27 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 17 in 2016–20 vs 10 in 2021–25 (-41% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Sarasota County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Sarasota County, Florida are lightning, hurricane, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Sarasota County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Sarasota County has received 48 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (21 declarations).
Has Sarasota County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Sarasota County include Hurricane Milton (2025), Hurricane Milton (2025), Tropical Storm Helene (2024), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Helene (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Sarasota County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Hillsborough County, FL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Hardee County, FL has the lowest (Relatively Low). Sarasota County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Sarasota County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Sarasota County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Sarasota County's composite score of 98 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 98% of US counties.