Rosebud County, MT
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Rosebud County has experienced 15 federally declared disasters since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Rosebud County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, winter weather, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 72% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (94th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Rosebud County has been designated in 15 declarations since 1978, covering 6 disaster types including fire (6), flood (4), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2021 | Fire | Richard Spring Fire |
| 2021 | Fire | Richard Spring Fire |
| 2020 | Fire | Snider/Rice Fire Complex |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2014 | Flood | Ice Jams And Flooding |
| 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2012 | Fire | Wildfire |
| 2012 | Fire | Ash Creek Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 total declarations since 1978.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 56.5 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 29.7 | 98 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 31.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 44 | 63 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 84.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 10.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 78.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 54.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 33.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 67.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 2.3 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Rosebud County ranks in the 94th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 94th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 92nd | High |
| Household characteristics | 88th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 86th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 85th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 96th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 94th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 61.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 64 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 50 in 2016–20 vs 14 in 2021–25 (-72% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Rosebud County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Rosebud County, Montana are wildfire, winter weather, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Rosebud County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Rosebud County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is fire (6 declarations).
Has Rosebud County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Rosebud County include Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1978.
How does Rosebud County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Big Horn County, MT has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Treasure County, MT has the lowest (Very Low). Rosebud County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Rosebud County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Rosebud County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Rosebud County's composite score of 50 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 50% of US counties.