Randolph County, MO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Randolph County has experienced 18 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Randolph County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, landslide, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 63% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Randolph County has been designated in 18 declarations since 1973, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (10), severe ice storm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And A Tornado |
| 2008 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 38.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 37.4 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 60.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 78.6 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 67.7 | 3 | 0 | $200K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 38.7 | 19 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 37.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 66.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 48 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 44.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 69.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Randolph County ranks in the 63rd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 63rd | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 73rd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 46th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 36th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 62nd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 49th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 47th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 58.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 26 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 19 in 2016–20 vs 7 in 2021–25 (-63% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Randolph County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Randolph County, Missouri are heat wave, landslide, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Randolph County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Randolph County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (10 declarations).
Has Randolph County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Randolph County include Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Randolph County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Boone County, MO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Howard County, MO has the lowest (Very Low). Randolph County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Randolph County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Randolph County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Randolph County's composite score of 36 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 36% of US counties.