Orange County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Orange County has experienced 31 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Hurricane Beryl in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Orange County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, hurricane, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 28% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Orange County has been designated in 31 declarations since 1973, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (10), flood (6), severe storm (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco And Laura |
| 2020 | Flood | Tropical Storm Imelda |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 89.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 78.5 | 29 | 10 | $1.6B |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 80.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 45.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 74.1 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 89.2 | 5 | 0 | $6.0M |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 95.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 26.3 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 42.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 40.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 88.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 73.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 95.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 43.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Orange County ranks in the 69th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 69th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 59th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 80th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 55th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 61st | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 87th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 89th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 55.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 43 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 25 in 2016–20 vs 18 in 2021–25 (-28% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Orange County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Orange County, Texas are lightning, hurricane, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Orange County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Orange County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (10 declarations).
Has Orange County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Orange County include Hurricane Beryl (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Orange County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Jefferson County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Newton County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Orange County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Orange County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Orange County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Orange County's composite score of 86 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 86% of US counties.