Jefferson County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Jefferson County has experienced 31 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Hurricane Beryl in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Jefferson County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, tornado, and hurricane, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 44% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (97th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Jefferson County has been designated in 31 declarations since 1973, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (10), flood (7), severe storm (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco And Laura |
| 2020 | Flood | Tropical Storm Imelda |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 91.3 | 54 | 8 | $3.3B |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 78.8 | 5 | 0 | $3K |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 66.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 92.7 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 98.5 | 9 | 0 | $1.3M |
| Hurricane | Very High | 98.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 65.7 | 28 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 84.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 71.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 94.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 96.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 99.7 | 3 | 1 | $55K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 87.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 25.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Jefferson County ranks in the 97th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 97th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 93rd | High |
| Household characteristics | 92nd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 93rd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 93rd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 94th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 96th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 16.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 100 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 41 in 2016–20 vs 59 in 2021–25 (+44% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Jefferson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Jefferson County, Texas are lightning, tornado, and hurricane. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Jefferson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Jefferson County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (10 declarations).
Has Jefferson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County include Hurricane Beryl (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Jefferson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Calcasieu Parish, LA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Cameron Parish, LA has the lowest (Very Low). Jefferson County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Jefferson County's composite score of 96 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 96% of US counties.