Orange County, NY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Orange County has experienced 36 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Jennings Creek Fire in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Orange County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, winter weather, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 75% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (73rd percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Orange County has been designated in 36 declarations since 1965, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (10), hurricane (10), snowstorm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fire | Jennings Creek Fire |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants Of Hurricane Ida |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants Of Hurricane Ida |
| 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Henri |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee |
Showing the 10 most recent of 36 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 51.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 93.4 | 59 | 1 | $10.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 47.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 87.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.3 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | 2 | 1 | $75K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 90.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 35.9 | 9 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 95.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 93.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 76.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 89.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 87.9 | 10 | 0 | $81K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 73.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 92.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 50.1 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Orange County ranks in the 73rd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 73rd | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 51st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 62nd | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 78th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 88th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 38th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 37th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 61.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 88 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 32 in 2016–20 vs 56 in 2021–25 (+75% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Orange County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Orange County, New York are strong wind, winter weather, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Orange County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Orange County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (10 declarations).
Has Orange County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Orange County include Jennings Creek Fire (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1965.
How does Orange County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Bergen County, NJ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Putnam County, NY has the lowest (Very Low). Orange County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Orange County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Orange County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Orange County's composite score of 91 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 91% of US counties.